Taming the Black Swan:

Multilateral diplomacy for sustainable growth in the era of disruption

驯服“黑天鹅”：在颠覆的时代里推动多边外交可持续发展

Don Pramudwinai

Deputy Prime Minister

and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Thailand

敦‧帕马威奈

泰国副总理兼外交部长

        The year 2020 was truly a disruptive time in world history. The fast-spreading Covid-19 pandemic managed to halt even the wave of globalisation and compelled governments to go into lockdown. Businesses were forced to close, in some cases leading to furloughs or unemployment, and further widening the existing social inequalities. Everyone came to the realisation that business would never again be the same, and began to accept the concept of a “new normal.”

       2020年是世界历史上真正动荡变化的一年。迅速蔓延的新冠肺炎疫情甚至阻挡了全球化浪潮，并迫使各国政府进入封锁状态。企业被迫关闭，导致员工可能面临强制休假或失业的问题，并进一步加剧了目前的社会不平等现象。人们都意识到，商业活动很难再保持一成不变，并开始接受“新常态”的概念。

       The pandemic is a harsh reminder that our life is full of uncertainties and unknown parameters. In worst-case scenarios, we don’t even know what we don’t know, leaving us completely off guard once it happens. The damage from these ‘unknown unknowns’ or ‘black swans’, as called by some theorists, is increasingly troublesome since the world is getting smaller and more intertwined. In these conditions, for a medium-sized nation such as Thailand, we have always recognised that multilateralism, aiming for sustainable growth, will be the prevailing solution in response to black swans. The idea is that the challenges that hit us the hardest are usually the ones that undermine human security. Therefore, countries need to work in concert; otherwise, the problem will just linger, by perpetually shifting elsewhere. This has led to our advocacy of sustainable development in all the multilateral institutions we have either founded or joined, from the League of Nations to the United Nations, and regionally, from ASEAN to ACMECS and ACD, to name a few.

       这场疫情为我们敲响了警钟，提醒我们生活充满了不确定性和未知变化。在最糟糕的情况下，我们甚至不知道还有什么是未知的，一旦变数发生，我们完全措手不及。一些理论家声称，这些“未知的意外事件”，又称“黑天鹅事件”造成的冲击将越来越棘手；因为随着全球时空距离的不断缩小，各国之间的联系也愈加紧密。在这种情况下，对于泰国这样的中等国家来说，我们始终相信，以可持续发展为目标的多边主义将是应对“黑天鹅事件”的普遍解决方案。通常认为，我们面临的最大挑战一般会威胁到人类安全。因此，各国需要齐心协力；否则，问题将继续存在，并永无止境地四处转移下去。为此，我们在泰国建立或加入的所有多边组织中倡导可持续发展，包括世界范围内的国际联盟、联合国；以及区域范围内的东南亚国家联盟（ASEAN）、伊洛瓦底江-湄南河-湄公河经济合作战略组织（ACMECS）和亚洲合作对话组织（ACD）等等。

      The rationale is evident and the benefits are foreseeable. Non-major powers have to combine capabilities to enhance political leverage or achieve shared goals that going solo will not succeed, such as climate change, sustainable development and, of course, pandemic management. COVID-19 has proven that traditional “great powers” have no power over such disruptions and need collaboration and networking to defeat this common foe. Recognising that “no one is safe until everyone is safe” underlines the significance of multilateral cooperation more than ever.

      这样做的理由不言而喻，并且拥有广阔的前景优势。非大国必须携手合作，以提高自身的政治影响力，或实现个体难以成功的共同目标，例如气候变化、可持续发展，当然还有疫情控制。新冠肺炎疫情已经证明，传统的“强国”没有能力处理这样的突发事件，需要协作和建立关系网络来击败这个共同的敌人。并且，正所谓“在所有人都安全之前，没有人是安全的”，这比以往任何时候都更加突出了多边合作的重要性。

     When the Cold War ended in the 1990s, economic cooperation became a prominent agenda, leading to the formation of regional groupings that Thailand joined or played an important part in founding. These include APEC, BIMSTEC, ACMECS and ACD. Together with ASEAN, these frameworks underpinned the notion of ‘prosper thy neighbour’ in Thai foreign policy and have brought about many tangible arrangements that have strengthened our resolve and solidarity whenever the region encountered ‘black swans’ in the past. The Asian financial crisis in 1997 and SARS in 2003 all presented us with valuable lessons.

    自20世纪90年代冷战结束后，经济合作便成为了主要议题，这进一步推动了区域组织的建立，泰国不但是部分组织的成员国，也在一些组织成立时发挥了重要作用。其中包括亚太经合组织（APEC）、环孟加拉湾多领域经济技术合作倡议(BIMSTEC)、伊洛瓦底江-湄南河-湄公河经济合作战略组织（ACMECS）和亚洲合作对话组织（ACD）。过去，在地区遭遇“黑天鹅事件”时，这些组织与东盟一道，巩固了泰国外交政策中“邻国共同繁荣”的理念，并推动大量措施落实，坚定了我们的决心，促进了区域团结。1997年的亚洲金融危机和2003年的非典都为我们提供了宝贵的经验教训。

    The occurrence of COVID-19 and the way nations should coordinate their responses will presumably follow similar patterns in terms of regional cooperation. For instance, Thailand offered full support to Vietnam, the ASEAN Chair, in organising the Special ASEAN Summit and the Special ASEAN Plus Three Summit on COVID-19 in April 2020. We also proposed the establishment of the COVID-19 ASEAN Response Fund. This is reminiscent of Thailand’s hosting of the Special ASEAN and ASEAN-China Leaders Meeting and the APEC Health Ministerial Meeting when SARS hit the region in 2003. It rightly demonstrated the necessity and advantages of synergizing strengths to counter a common threat and prepare for any future disruptive challenges.

    在区域合作方面，新冠肺炎疫情的出现，以及各国应如何协调应对，可能会遵循类似的模式。例如，泰国全力支持东盟主席国越南于2020年4月组织东盟领导人特别会议和东盟与中日韩（“十加三”）领导人特别会议。泰国还提议东盟设立应对新冠肺炎疫情基金。这不禁使人联想起在2003年非典袭击本地区时，泰国主办了东盟及东盟-中国领导人特别会议和亚太经合组织卫生部长级会议。这恰恰表明了协同力量的必要性和优势：应对共同威胁，并为未来可能的任何冲击做好准备。

    Throughout the years, Thailand has consistently pursued a common theme across all regional frameworks - the need to encourage sustainable growth that is balanced and remains grounded on basic human needs and rights. A common resolve on the part of the international community to not over-exploit resources will allow future generations to enjoy clean, decent and green social environments in any region across the world.

    多年来，泰国在所有区域组织中始终奉行一个共同原则，即必须鼓励可持续发展平衡增长，并始终以人类基本需求和权利为基础。若国际社会达成共识，不再过度开发资源，那么我们的子孙后代将会在世界任何地方享受清洁、适宜和绿色的社会环境。

   The post-COVID world requires a rethink – a paradigm shift – of how we pursue economic growth. Our current path has put human activities in direct conflict with nature, creating imbalances in the forms of climate change, the pandemic, and even social unrest. The Thai government recently made the Bio-Circular-Green Economy, or the BCG Model, our national agenda. It will be our main strategy for economic recovery and development after the pandemic and beyond. Through innovative and sustainable growth strategies that adequately meet human’s needs, helping lift millions out of poverty while respecting the planet, we hope to achieve a balance, or a middle path, that harmonizes production and consumption with preservation of the natural world. As other countries also share similar ideas, Thailand looks forward to working with like-minded partners to transform such concepts into concrete deliverables that will benefit people around the world at large.

   后疫情时代的世界需要人类以范式转变的方式重新思考应该如何谋求经济增长。以目前的发展路径，人类活动与自然发生直接冲突，造成了气候变化、流行病、甚至社会动荡等各种形式的发展不平衡。最近，泰国政府已将“生物-循环-绿色经济”（即BCG模式）纳入国家议事日程。这将是泰国在疫情之后及未来恢复和发展经济的主要战略。通过创新和可持续发展战略，充分满足人类需要，帮助数百万人摆脱贫困，同时尊重地球生态；泰国希望实现一种平衡，或某种“均衡途径”，促使人类生产和消费与保护自然世界相互协调。同样地，其他国家也一定有类似的主张，泰国期待着与志同道合的伙伴合作，将这些概念转化为具体的成果实施，广泛造福全世界人民。

       As the current global economy is still struggling while Thailand’s main engines of growth show signs of slowing down, multilateral collaboration should be part of Thailand’s exit strategy. For example, to place Thailand in a better position in the global value chain, continued regional commitment to developing transportation networks and the harmonisation of regulations is essential. Meanwhile, the pandemic has spurred tremendous growth in digitisation in various areas, including business, telemedicine and remote education. We should take this opportunity to expedite cooperation to connect and upgrade our digital infrastructure and e-commerce.

     由于当前全球仍在经济衰退中挣扎，泰国经济的主要增长引擎也显示出放缓迹象，多边合作则更应纳入泰国退出战略中。例如，为了使泰国在全球价值链中处于更加有利的地位，必须继续致力于发展区域运输网络系统，并协调统一规章制度。与此同时，疫情推动了各个行业数字化的迅猛发展，包括商业、远程医疗和远程教育等领域。泰国应借此机会加快合作进程，联结和升级本国的数字化基础设施和电子商务活动。

     Such trends align with the Thailand 4.0 strategy to transform the country’s economy into one that is technology and innovation-driven, with more valued-added industries. The Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) lies at the core of this strategy and promotes investment in twelve targeted industries, such as next-generation automotive, smart electronics, and food for the future. All of these industries bode well for job creation and economic dynamism in Thailand and the region, as the EEC has become a notable magnet drawing foreign investors due to its logistical facilities and strategic location.

     这样的发展趋势与泰国4.0战略相吻合，都旨在将泰国转变为一个以技术和创新为驱动力、拥有更多产业附加值的经济体。东部经济走廊（EEC）是泰国4.0战略的核心，推动投资12个目标行业，如“下一代汽车”、智能电子产品和未来食品。所有这些行业都会为泰国和区域创造更多就业机会，并预示出经济活力的良好前景；得益于其物流设施和战略位置，东部经济走廊已显著成为吸引外国投资者的磁石。

    Thailand’s regional policy also advocates free and multilateral trade. It must be mentioned that the final signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) last year could not have been achieved without the expedition of negotiations over RCEP’s 20 chapters during Thailand’s Chairmanship of ASEAN in 2019, which was a huge feat. The agreement will widen trade and investment opportunities for Thai entrepreneurs to access a market of 2.2 billion people or nearly a third of the world population.

    泰国的区域政策也提倡自由贸易和多边贸易。必须指出，在2019年泰国担任东盟轮值主席国期间，如果没有泰国推动加快谈判《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定（RCEP）》的20多个章节，那么最终签署是不可能实现的，这是一个伟大的壮举。这项协议将为泰国企业家带来更多贸易和投资机会，使他们能够进入一个拥有22  亿人口（占世界人口近三分之一）的市场。

   With such prospects, Thailand’s assumption of the chairmanships of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral, Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) from 2021 to 2022 and of APEC in 2022 is most timely. It places Thailand in a unique position to strengthen linkages and play a constructive role in designing a post-Covid economic recovery plan for regional growth that is sustainable and healthy.

   展望未来，泰国将在2021年至2022年间担任环孟加拉湾多领域经济技术合作倡议(BIMSTEC)主席国并紧接着于2022年担任亚太经合组织（APEC）主席国。这让泰国在发展区域可持续和健康增长中处于独特地位，不断加强区域间联系，并在制定后疫情时代经济复苏计划方面发挥建设性作用。

   Under BIMSTEC, Thailand will push for the improvement of land and sea links to strengthen transport infrastructure and facilitate trade. One of the flagship projects is the 1,360-kilometre trilateral highway from Tak Province, on Thailand’s western border, through Myanmar to the Indian border town of Moreh in Manipur State. With regard to maritime connectivity, Thailand plans to link Ranong Province on the Andaman coast to the port town of Krishnapatnam in India’s Andhra Pradesh, as an additional channel to promote inter-regional trade.

    根据环孟加拉湾多领域经济技术合作倡议(BIMSTEC)，泰国将推动完善陆海连接体系，以加强运输基础设施建设，并促进贸易发展。其中一个旗舰项目是一条长达1360公里的三国跨国公路，从泰国西部边境的来兴府出发，经过缅甸，到达印度曼尼普尔邦的边境城镇莫雷。在海上互联互通方面，泰国计划将安达曼海岸的拉农府与印度安得拉邦的港口城市克里什纳帕特南连接起来，作为增补通道，以促进区域间贸易。

   As far as APEC is concerned, Thailand intends to move the grouping forward and concretise the APEC Post-2020 Vision to promote trade and investment. We seek to promote digitalisation to boost economic growth, and improve business inclusivity for all groups of the population, particularly women, people with disabilities, and rural communities.

   泰国计划继续促进亚太经合组织发展，并推动亚太经合组织2020年后的愿景具体化，以促进贸易和投资。泰国致力于数字化发展，以带动经济增长，并提高商业包容性，特别是对于妇女、残疾人和农村地区的人民。

   In this era of perpetual change, Thailand realises that both our inner strengths and international partnerships are vital if we are to be fully prepared for the “Next Normal” and be capable of harnessing external uncertainties. As the year 2021 is a transition phase towards post COVID-19 recovery, Thailand looks forward to working closely with our international partners in making a global rebound and shaping a sustainable future for our next generation.

   在这个日新月异的时代，泰国认识到，如果要为“下一个常态”做好充分准备，并能够利用外部不确定性，国家的内在优势和国际伙伴关系都是至关重要的。由于2021年是新冠肺炎疫情后复苏的过渡阶段，泰国期待着与国际伙伴进行密切合作，实现全球复苏，为我们的下一代塑造可持续发展的美好未来。